The application shows the hydropower potential in the upper Indus basin (UIB) estimated as part of Work Package 2 in the SustainIndus project. The project quantified successive classes of hydropower potential under various policy and climate scenarios using the Hydropower Potential Exploration (HyPE) model developed for the UIB.

The map shows the hydropower potential across the sub-basins of the UIB for selected potential class. The bar chart compares sub-basin with basin totals for all three potential classes. The “Time period” option can be used to select between historical (1979-2018), mid-future (2036-2065) and far-future (2066-2095) time horizons. For historical time horizon, the HyPE model was run using historical hydro-climatology two types of hydropower development policy scenarios of which one is shown here. The energy focus scenarios (Large/Medium/Mixed) explore the impact of policy focus on different scales of hydropower development. Large focus scenario explores hydropower development policies that promote building only large plants while medium scenarios considers development of medium scale plants. The mixed scenario explores a more balanced approach of building medium to large plants in mainstreams of the UIB and small plants in the tributaries. For the mid and far future, the HyPE model was run with projections for future hydro-climatology and settings for the mixed energy focus scenario. User can choose from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5, 7.0 and 8.5) and four corners Global Climate Models for each RCP (Cold Dry, Cold Wet, Warm Dry, Warm Wet) selected from the latest model ensembles under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).

The main highlights of the hydropower potential exploration study are summarized in our storymap while detailed model setup and results can are presented in our papers on historical and future potential of the UIB. The latest version of the HyPE model with detailed documentation can be found in a Git repository. Ready to use input data required to run the model are available at Zenodo. The hydropower potential portfolios output by the model and the sub-basin totals presented here are available for download at the ICIMOD Regional Database system, separately for the historical and future scenarios.

Definitions of potential classes

Theoretical potential represents the maximum energy that can be generated by using all available water and elevation change within the basin. Theoretical potential in the upper Indus is 1565 Twh/yr. However, limits of technology will constrain the extent to which the theoretical potential can be materialized efficiently. Thus, we evaluate technical potential assuming requirement of two common run-of-river configurations for mountainous terrains: river power plant (RP) and diversion canal plant (DP). Technical potential also considers local policies, design preferences, existing infrastructures and land use that affect the technical design of hydropower plants in the Indus. As hydropower is a mature technology, technical solutions can always be found for building hydropower sites but these may not always be financially feasible. Hence, there is the financial potential which considers only plants that cost below 10 cents to produce one unit of energy (1 kWh). This financial threshold is based on global average hydropower prices over the last decade and globally cost-competitive price for all energy sources. In reality, financial potential may not be fully realizable as other non-technical and non-economic factors can affect long-term sustainability of hydropower plants. Hence, we propose a new fourth class of sustainable potential which represents a more reasonable value that accounts for the impact of anthropogenic water use, land use and geo-hazard risk on hydropower development under the water-energy-food-environment nexus.